null Fighting Climate Crises with Models, Wetlands, and Participation: Can It Work?

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Fighting Climate Crises with Models, Wetlands, and Participation: Can It Work?

In this interdisciplinary thesis, Borjana Bogatinoska presents a layered approach to integrating nature-based solutions (NbS) with environmental modelling to address climate adaptation and mitigation challenges (Figure 1). Her research was conducted at the Open Universiteit and was part of two European research projects: Co-Adapt Interreg 2 Seas and EIFFEL Horizon 2020.

It focused on how participatory design and integrated modelling can enhance flood and drought resilience while sequestering carbon in landscapes.

Figure 1: Conceptual Framework for Nature-based Solutions (NbS) Planning.

Extreme weather events

Bogatinoska’s motivation for this research stemmed from the increasing frequency of extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, exacerbated by climate change. With a background in civil and water engineering, she recognized the urgent need to shift from rigid engineering solutions to more sustainable, adaptive strategies that harness the resilience of natural systems. By focusing on NbS, which work with natural processes to mitigate environmental risks, Bogatinoska aimed to develop practical tools for climate adaptation that involve key stakeholders in the design process.

Multifunctionality of NbS

The results of her research are significant, showing that integrating disciplinary models such as hydrological models with carbon sequestration models can help decision-makers assess the multifunctionality of NbS in a less complex and more straightforward way that developing complex integrated models.

Case study Aa of Weerijs

Through a detailed case study in the Aa of Weerijs catchment, Bogatinoska demonstrated that alternative land-use scenarios, such as heathland and wetland restoration, can increase both water retention and carbon sequestration. The proposed approach for model coupling approach is particularly valuable for managing drought and mitigating the effects of extreme weather events. Her research also highlighted the importance of stakeholder participation in ensuring that NbS are both scientifically sound and socially acceptable.

Figure 2 ΔSMI (drought indicator) and ΔSOC (soil carbon sequestration indicator) for the following NbS scenarios: a) and d) heathland restoration, b) and e) tree planting and d) and f) wetland restoration.

Direct relationship between water retention and carbon sequestration

One of the most important findings of Bogatinoska’s thesis is the direct relationship between water retention and carbon sequestration. Her integrated modeling framework showed that by increasing water retention in the soil, it is possible to simultaneously enhance carbon storage, thus providing a dual benefit for both drought management and climate mitigation (Figure 2). This result underscores the potential for NbS to tackle multiple environmental challenges at once, making them a key tool for policymakers and planners working to build climate resilience.

PhD defense Borjana Bogatinoska

Borjana Bogatinoska (Skopje, 1995) is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Twente, specializing in hydraulic engineering with a focus on nature-based solutions for flood resilience. She will defend her dissertation 'Co-creating Nature-Based Solutions Supported by Integrated Environmental Modelling' on 6 December 2024 at 4 PM at the Faculty of Science of the Open Universiteit.

Her promotors are Prof. Dr. Ir. Jetse Stoorvogel (Open Universiteit) and Prof. Dr. Stefan Dekker (Open Universiteit). The copromotors are dr. ir. Angelique Lansu en dr. ir. Jean Hugé (both Open Universiteit).The promotion can be attended live at the Open Universiteit in Heerlen and followed online at ou.nl/live.

Bogatinoska’s work is driven by a commitment to bridging the gap between science and society, aiming to make scientific insights accessible and actionable for communities facing the immediate impacts of climate change.